From promises of rolled-back EV mandates and the easing of other automotive regulations, Donald Trump’s White House return should boost dealership buy-sell activity in 2025 and possibly beyond, according to industry experts.
Dealers have feared a backlog of unsold electric vehicles would slowly choke out internal combustion engine vehicle inventory amid current regulations, adding friction to a retail experience already more fraught amid higher interest rates. With the expectation that Trump will relax regulations, dealers and industry advisers predict a better automotive retail scene overall, including buy-sells.
“It’s going to be the Roaring ’20s,” said Stuart McCallum, national dealership practice leader for advisory and accounting firm Withum, referring to the booming economy of the 1920s.
Trump’s presidential win should encourage dealers who had been awaiting a political decision to reengage on acquisitions, spurring activity, including in states such as California where dealership interest had faded, experts say.
In 2023, the Automotive News Research & Data Center tallied 381 transactions involving the sale of 562 U.S. franchised dealerships. Automotive News estimates at least 272 transactions involving 403 dealerships trading hands through the third quarter of 2024, though tracking is ongoing and will increase as new transactions are discovered.
Erin Kerrigan, managing director of the sell-side advisory firm Kerrigan Advisors, of Incline Village, Nev., said the election results will affect the industry favorably.
“I think that the election is going to be a real shot in the arm for what is already a very active buy-sell market,” Kerrigan said.
She said the Trump administration’s plans to pull back regulations that don’t meet consumer needs for EVs will also help enable more free-market sales of vehicles.
“I think that you’re going to just see a boom in car sales, and I think you’re going to see a boom in buy-sells,” Kerrigan said. “And I think it’s hugely positive.”
Trump has also promised to revoke the waiver that allows California to write its own emissions rules. Kerrigan said more forgiving emissions requirements in that state and others that follow its regulations could help increase dealership demand.
She said demand was waning for acquisitions in 2024 in states that follow the California Air Resources Board mandates, particularly in California, as regulation requirements were beginning to dampen buyers’ sales expectations, given slowing growth in sales of EVs.
“Should California’s strict requirements get overturned with the Trump administration, I would expect a significant increase in buyer demand for dealerships in California and other CARB states, because sales and profits projections would improve meaningfully,” Kerrigan said.
Kerrigan Advisors is the leading sell-side advisor and thought partner to auto dealers nationwide. Since its founding in 2014, the firm has led the industry with the sale of over 275 dealerships representing $9 billion in client proceeds, including the third largest transaction in auto retail history – the sale of Jim Koons Automotive Companies to Asbury Automotive Group. The firm advises the industry’s leading dealership groups, enhancing value through the lifecycle of growing, operating and, when the time is right, selling their businesses. Led by a team of veteran industry experts with backgrounds in investment banking, private equity, accounting, finance and real estate, Kerrigan Advisors does not take listings, rather they develop a customized sales approach for each client to achieve their personal and financial goals. In addition to the firm’s sell-side advisory services, Kerrigan Advisors also provides a suite of consulting and investor services including growth strategy, market valuation assessments, capital allocation, transactional due diligence, open point proposals, operational improvement and real estate due diligence.
Kerrigan Advisors monitors conditions in the buy/sell market and publishes an in-depth analysis each quarter in The Blue Sky Report®, which includes Kerrigan Advisors’ signature blue sky charts, multiples, and analysis for each franchise in the luxury and non-luxury segments. To download a preview of the report, click here. The firm also releases monthly The Kerrigan Index™ composed of the seven publicly traded auto retail companies with operations focused on the US market. The Kerrigan Auto Retail Index is designed to track dealership valuation trends, while also providing key insights into factors influencing auto retail. To access The Kerrigan Index™, click here. To read the 2023 Kerrigan Dealer Survey, click here. To read the 2024 Kerrigan OEM Survey, click here. Kerrigan Advisors also is the co-author of NADA’s Guide to Buying and Selling a Dealership.
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